France is one of the world's largest nuclear power producers
France is a founding member of the European Union (EU) and one of Europe's most important economies. In 2004, France's gross domestic product (GDP) stood at $2.01 trillion, the second-largest in the EU. Economic growth, though, has been unremarkable in recent years, with real GDP growth of only 2.1% in 2004. The lack of significant economic growth has strained France's public finances, and for the fourth consecutive year, France's budget deficit will exceed the limits of the EU Growth and Stability Pact.
French economy has the third-lowest carbon intensity in the OECD.
France emitted 407 million metric tons (Mmt) of Carbon dioxide in 2002, the fourth-most in Europe. It also consumed 11.0 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of total energy, the second-largest amount in Europe. On the other hand, the energy intensity of France's economy in 2002 was Well below the average for members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).
Further, the carbon dioxide intensity of the French economy in 2002 was the third-lowest in the OECD, behind only Switzerland and Sweden, an indication of France's reliance upon nuclear energy.
France imported 97% of its natural gas needs in 2003
At the beginning of 2005, France had about 450 billion cubic feet (Bcf) of proven Natural Gas reserves. France has very little domestic natural gas production; in 2003, the country consumed 1.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), with only 3% of that demand met from domestic sources. The most important sources of France's natural gas imports are Norway, Russia, and Algeria. Natural gas is a small component of France's energy mix, representing only 15% of total energy consumption in 2002.
France has natural gas pipeline connections to Norway, Spain, Russia, Netherlands. GdF operates the vast majority of France's domestic Pipeline system. The company operates over 19,000 miles of Natural Gas pipelines in France, with an overall system capacity of 5.9 Bcf/d. The GdF systems covers the entire country, with main trunk lines connecting population centers to the import entry points of Dunkerque, Montoir-de-Bretagne, Fos-Cavaou, Cerville-Velaine, and Taisnieres. GdF also maintains 0.28 Bcf of natural gas storage facilities at strategic locations in the transmission network.
Because of its dependence on natural gas imports, France has extensive pipeline connections with its neighbors. The Franpipe, completed in 1998, links Norway's Draupner platform in the North Sea to the French port of Dunkerque. The 521-mile-long, 1.4-Bcf/d Franpipe was the first pipeline to directly link France with a natural gas field in a foreign country. Analysts predict that Franpipe will eventually supply one-third of France's total natural gas consumption. The Trans-Pyrenean natural gas pipeline, linking Calahorra, Spain to Lacq, France began operations in 1993. The 330-million-cubic-feet-per-day (Mmcf/d) connection allows Spain to import natural gas via France from Norway. France also imports natural gas from Russia through the Cerville-Velaine distribution center in northeast France and from the Netherlands through the Taisnieres entry point.
Introduction
Owned by the French government, Gaz de France (GdF) dominates all Natural Gas activities in the country. Prior to recent reforms (see below), GdF had a legal monopoly on the production, distribution, transportation, and importation of natural gas in the country. In recent years, EU directives have forced member countries to open their natural gas sectors to foreign investors, and GdF has taken advantage of this openness to enter the domestic natural gas markets of other EU countries. As a result, almost one-third of GdF's 15 million customers are outside France. However, because France has been one of the slowest EU countries to open its own markets, there has been some backlash to GdF's foreign ventures, especially from the governments of Italy and Spain.
Gaz de France Profile
An integrated energy utility, present throughout the gas supply chain from exploration and production to customer services, pursuing its growth in Europe.
As Europe's regulatory framework is going through a profound change and energy markets are opening up to competition, Gaz de France has decided to operate as an integrated energy utility, present throughout the gas supply chain from exploration and production to customer services, and to pursue its growth in Europe.
This choice, which is compatible with the new market development conditions, will allow the Group to implement its strategy while complying with European directives.
Gaz de France offers multi-energy packages, and a large gamut of associated services (activities described in �Energy Supply and Services�), while managing and developing its natural gas transmission, storage and distribution infrastructures (activities described in �Infrastructures�).
Committed to sustainable development, Gaz de France is seeking to achieve corporate growth while maintaining its commitment to public service
Gaz de France Key Data
The Group's consolidated net sales totalled 18.13 billion euros, up 8.9% from 2003.
International business accounted for 29% of the Group's total net sales.
Net income Group share reached 1046 millions euros.
Total investements amounted to 1,76 billion euros.
Gaz sales amounted to 66.4 billion cubic meters.
The Group employed a workforce of 38 251 people.
Canada is the United States� most important trading partner, with over $450 billion worth of goods, services, investments, and financial transfers exchanged between the two countries in 2004. Canada and the U.S. also enjoy an interdependent energy relationship, trading Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, and electricity.
Canada has experienced sustained economic growth during the past several years; its real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a rate of 2.9 percent in 2005, the same as in 2004. Continuing economic recovery in the United States and higher prices for Canada�s natural resource exports have driven Canada�s economic growth in recent years.
Canada�s total Oil production (including all liquids) was 3.1 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2005, while the country consumed 2.3 million bbl/d that year. The country's oil production has been increasing since 1999, as new oil sands and offshore projects have come on-stream to replace aging fields in the western provinces.
Overall, analysts predict that oil sands production will increase significantly in coming years and offset the decline in Canada�s conventional Crude Oil production.
Canada has a privatized Oil sector that has witnessed considerable consolidation in recent years. The largest integrated Operator in the country is Imperial Oil, majority owned by ExxonMobil. In 2002, Alberta Energy Company and PanCanadian Energy merged to create EnCana, Canada�s largest independent Upstream operator.
Other significant oil producers in Canada include Talisman Energy, Suncor, EOG Resources, Husky Energy, and Apache Canada. U.S. companies maintain a sizable presence in the Canadian oil industry.
The Canadian government formed Petro-Canada in 1975 in an effort to reduce the dominance of U.S. companies in Canada�s oil industry. The company received considerable initial resources from the Canadian government in its early years, though critics accused Petro-Canada of inefficiently deploying those resources and interfering with the operations of private companies. In 1991, the Canadian government began to privatize Petro-Canada, and in late 2004, the government sold its remaining 20 percent stake in the company.
If you have never considered trading energy markets then think again - Because they can yield fantastic profits as the recent bull move in crude oil has shown.
Here we will go through the basics and show you how to trade energy markets for maximum profit potential.
The worlds most actively traded commodity group
The energy markets are the world’s largest traded commodity group as they are literally the fuel of the global economy and are always volatile and offering opportunities for profit.
Standardized Contracts
Contacts are standard size and the main market is NYMEX in New York.
You can go both long and short as well giving you constant opportunities for profit and price information is freely available on the net.
Looking for opportunities
As they are always trending - The best way to trade them is via technical analysis and look for the long term trends not the short term noise of the market.
Focus on these trends and you can pile up huge profits if you catch them!
Each energy market has its own unique trading personality and a seasonal tendency. These seasonal tendencies make a great filter for trades as in many contracts their highly reliable.
For example, unleaded gasoline is used for cars and peak demand is the summer driving season on the other hand heating oil is needed to heat homes and demand is strongest in the winter.
Trading these spreads adds an extra dimension to trading to pinpointing low risk high reward trades.
There are many more and the really give you an edge when trading.
Intra commodity spreads
To cut risk even further you can trade these spreads.
These are simply the difference in prices of two different contracts, of the same commodity i.e August and October natural gas
The trick is to pick the contract that is expected to move the most and lay off some of the risk.
For instance, in energies it’s normally the nearby contract that moves the most, so you buy the near contract and sell the deferred – This is known as a bull spread and is used by the real pro traders.
When using spreads its always important to take into consideration the general trend and price pattern of the spread before trading – There great way to limit risk and maximize profits and that’s what we all want.
Vehicles
With futures you can also trade options to and these are great way to trade a volatile market as they offer unlimited profit potential linked to limited risk.
When buying options though make sure (and this applies to any market) you buy options that are at or near the money with plenty of time to expiry.
You get staying power and that’s a major bonus, in a volatile market like energies.
Instead of getting stopped out by the market “noise” you can remain in on the trade. Getting stopped out by volatility is a major reason traders lose – They get the direction right but get hit on the stop.
Why energies are such a good market
They trend well (and are suitable for any long term trading methodology) they fuel the world economy so we know there is always going to movement and trends but you get something extra when trading:
1. Highly reliable seasonal spreads
2. The opportunity to trade intra spreads for better risk reward
Combine this with options and you will get the best risk reward with staying power to take advantage of these moves.
A word of caution
Don’t trade energies short term – They are highly volatile and short term price spikes that will kill you – You need top focus on the long term trends only.
Another important point is these markets have an ability to wrong foot the experts so don’t focus on the news – Focus on what the charts are telling you.
You are looking for long term trends and the big trends only come a few times a year so you won’t be trading frequently. If you want to always be in on the action forget you will lose.
rude Oil Weekly Trading Signal – Explained
Crude Oil Weekly Trading Strategy Chart
Crude Oil Daily Trading Signals Chart
Commodities so far this week have not changed much. But I can point out a few things for us to watch Thursday and Friday.
Precious Metals – Gold GLD fund – Silver SLV Fund – PM Stocks GDX Fund
We could start to see a shift between the price relationship between gold and the broad market. I pointed this out last week mentioning that gold and silver are starting to hold up in value while stocks sell off on big days. For example, Wednesday’s sell-off in equities did not have much effect on precious metals. This is what we want to see. It means money is moving out of stocks and into gold and silver bullion as a safe haven.
These three charts of GLD, SLV and GDX show Wednesday’s price action as gold and silver moved higher while precious metal stocks sold down with the rest of the market. This is generally a bearish indicator for gold and silver but because I am starting to see this happen more often and traders are ready for the market to top any day, I am seeing this as a bullish indicator. If the market starts to slide I have a feeling investors will be dumping a lot more money into gold and silver.
We are seeing a similar pattern in the energy sector. Oil had a nice move higher today while energy stocks sold off. Stocks are starting to fall out of favor.
Natural gas is still in a bear market and trading under a major resistance trend line. This commodity could go either way so I am going to wait for the odds to be more on my side before jumping on board with a long or a short trade.
The market is starting to look and feel top heavy with many indicators and price action patterns giving cross signals. While the market could continue to rocket higher with new money getting dumped in from average investors because of solid 3rd quarter earnings, we must be cautious by tightening our stops and take some profits off the table. Until we get a short term oversold market condition I am trading very conservatively.
The past week in gold, silver, oil, natural gas and the broad market wasn’t anything to write home about. We are seeing controlled profit taking which is making the market choppy. Many traders are getting very bearish on the market which is a good thing in my opinion. According to my market internals, sentiment and volume analysis we should get a shake out (sharp dip) which would make traders exit their positions before the market continues higher.
Some trader’s say we are in a bull market, others say we are in a major bear market. Either way the trend is up on the daily and weekly charts and companies are making money. Buying on over sold dips has been very profitable this year. Until I see things drastically change, this is my strategy for the broad market.
Lets take a look at the commodity sector.
HUI – Gold Stocks Index
Recently we have seen money move out of gold stocks but with the majority of them trading at support trend line we could see some fireworks this week.
Gold has been trading sideways as investors and traders digest the previous rally higher. The recent price action looks similar to the September rally and consolidation. Lets hope for a another move higher without getting shaken out of our positon.
Silver is in much of the same situation as gold. We are waiting to see what happens here at these support levels.
Oil has been making a strong rally after breaking out of is multi month consolidation pattern. We are now looking for some type of pullback or test of breakout for another low risk entry point.
Natural gas is having some trouble breaking out above the multi month resistance trend line. Buying here is a 50/50 bet and I will wait for another entry point before putting our money to work.
Overall, the market feels ready for quick snapback to shake traders out of profitable positions. I expect a resumption of the up trend as the market slowly creeps higher at a steady pace digesting each rally with sideways movement.
Commodities and stocks almost look ready for a rally or at least a relief bounce. The market is down over 5% and the normal pullback this year has been 4%. Using technical analysis and inter-market analysis we can see that the market is reaching extreme lows and this usually means we are only a couple days away from a rally.
I work with several market technicians as we all analyze the market a different way and share our work with each other to gain maximum insight on the broad market moves. We analyze momentum cycles, magnetic cycles, volatility levels, support & resistance levels, volume analysis and inter-market analysis.
Each of us has found a formula which works for our individual style of trading. And by combining our work we have found that we can collectively produce some very exciting trading signals for the broad market. We focus on leveraged index funds in order to take advantage of our insights. While nothing in trading is ever perfect, the analysis for timing the broad market is very exciting.
Here are some quick charts on where the market is trading.
US Dollar – Daily Dollar Price Chart
This chart is a no brainer. The trend is down and trading at resistance. If the US dollar reverses back down we will see stocks and commodities move higher.
Again, overall the trend is down and trading at resistance. As the saying goes “When the VIX is high its time to buy”. Just to be clear, the VIX is low compared to the previous highs set back in 2008 which was around the 80 level. But, if we want to keep things simple for the current trend then the VIX is high for our current market condition. The VIX moves in the opposite direction of the equities market.
Here is the Dow Jones index fund and it clearly shows that when investors are selling out of their positions and getting scared of a market collapse, volume rockets higher. When we see the price pullback to possible support levels and volume increases that is a time when we should be looking to scale into a long position for a bounce, such as now.
You can see that the energy sector is very close to a support level and volume is high. With the US dollar about to reverse back down it will help boost this sector as it is tied in with commodity prices which rise with a falling dollar. I expect we will see a price gap lower and fill this area before moving higher.
This chart has not changed much from last weeks report. We are getting the drop as expected this week. We could see the gap fill from early October before gold stabilizes.
Silver is in the same situation. Gold and silver move in tandem so we are waiting for a bottom before looking for a low risk entry point.
To keep things short and to the point, I am seeing momentum cycle lows as of today, magnetic wave lows today, and most commodities and indexes trading at support. These observations, coupled with the US dollar at a possible resistance level and market volatility spiking to an extreme high, lead me think a bounce is in the cards.
Gold GLD ETF – Gold Pivot Trading Low – Daily Chart
As you can see from the chart below we appear to be in the middle of a pivot low correction which can make for some great entry points. The trend is up, gold is oversold and it looks like we had a reversal low last week.
This is a chart I posted a couple months ago and so far silver has traded within the trend lines and support & resistance levels I pointed out in early August. Silver still looks bullish as it is trading at a pivot low.
Gold mining stocks appear to be trading near the bottom of the trend channel. The odds are still pointing to higher prices.
This chart of USO is also from a recent post in early October. USO broke out and is now trading at our support trend lines. There was a nice reversal candle last week but the heavy selling across the entire market pulled oil back down.
Pivot trading low could be close for UNG. The daily chart is telling me we saw the bottom in natural gas back in September as prices collapsed washing out most long (bullish) traders. I figure we will see prices trade between $9-12 for several months as the commodity forms a base.
The broad market looks and feels oversold. This chart uses Andrews Pitchfork analysis to show where short term pullbacks to the middle trend line (middle of trading range) have been a buying opportunity. Deeper corrections drop to the bottom support trend channel. These corrections sometimes form a lower low and lower high that scares traders and inestors out of the market before heading higher.
This chart shows the performance for each month over the past 37 years. Simple analysis shows selling pressure in Sept and Oct as mutual funds sell positions to lock in gains for their books each year. This move is generally compounded because seasoned traders know about this seasonal movement and also sell positions and even short the market to take advantage of this at times.
I think we are inline for a perfect storm going into year end. The market is trading at a pivot low from many different analysis theories. This forms a high probability trading opportunity in the next 2 months if we see prices reverse and start heading higher this month.
A lot of stocks have taken a real beating this past month as sell orders flooded the trading desks last week. Technology, financials and small cap stocks took is the worst. The sharp drop is not really what we wanted to see but it makes good sense. With those groups posting the largest gains since March it is only normal that money will be coming out of those stocks to lock in gains.
Many traders are starting to panic about another possible market melt down. This negative sentiment is a bullish indicator for higher prices. If everyone is scared and exiting their positions then we must be close to trading a pivot low.
